Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 32.806940 36.425722 40.478585 45.395030 51.254154 58.086397 66.766845
2025-07-13 27.187118 31.856272 37.542045 45.129686 55.241751 68.652931 88.538003
2025-07-20 23.674840 28.849093 35.556229 45.205337 59.327795 80.364925 116.723908
2025-07-27 21.398411 26.898611 34.398537 45.896217 64.190471 94.635317 156.429871
2025-08-03 19.396222 24.956682 32.837080 45.539500 67.193682 106.910335 201.039801
2025-08-10 17.838760 23.399083 31.538157 45.237117 70.077695 120.029830 259.104152
2025-08-17 16.676633 22.255101 30.663330 45.395183 73.744351 136.335840 345.146722
2025-08-24 15.582868 21.085247 29.578077 44.962014 76.111415 150.929647 450.156023
2025-08-31 14.665910 20.089856 28.641609 44.610551 78.528049 167.051295 599.465045
2025-09-07 13.855917 19.185148 27.746428 44.174676 80.636991 183.739389 810.026976
2025-09-14 13.194043 18.457497 27.067294 44.035899 83.401386 204.526339 1163.226215
2025-09-21 12.543544 17.696655 26.253143 43.499813 85.064597 223.085816 1668.235021
2025-09-28 12.344216 17.672302 26.753466 45.803142 95.035023 284.794384 4396.385309
2025-10-05 11.804022 17.041097 26.102679 45.562672 98.034534 320.930008 10178.696541
2025-10-12 11.355095 16.532990 25.631162 45.650670 102.120348 369.796552 48996.707490
2025-10-19 11.019206 16.194194 25.443051 46.356279 108.492307 445.807585 NaN
2025-10-26 10.590323 15.664717 24.841784 45.996025 111.260439 504.952096 NaN
2025-11-02 10.202643 15.183962 24.294883 45.689830 114.190237 575.669044 NaN
2025-11-09 9.893349 14.823715 23.955219 45.850531 119.009114 683.971655 NaN
2025-11-16 9.547677 14.378367 23.409876 45.411012 121.397313 778.961708 NaN
2025-11-23 9.234561 13.975410 22.920735 45.054373 124.081278 896.965649 NaN
2025-11-30 8.934964 13.581958 22.423184 44.612071 126.316278 1028.837318 NaN
2025-12-07 8.681641 13.261081 22.053668 44.471255 129.948750 1225.784527 NaN